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HR / People Analytics · how-to
Flight Risk — predict which employees will resign — in Excel
A turnover-prediction analysis. Every step below is the same analysis rendered for Excel — grounded in the source, honest where Excel can't do a step cleanly.
Same analysis, your tool
DERIVE
logistic regression needs numeric inputs; encode categoricals
=formula ' new column "derived", fill downCORRELATE
screen which variables actually track turnover before modeling
=CORREL(driver_j, outcome)FIT-CLASSIFIER
estimate the equation linking predictors to probability of resigning
' logistic/classifier via Solver (maximize log-likelihood) or an add-in — no native fitVALIDITY · mechanical
confirm each predictor contributes reliably
=CORREL(measure, criterion) ' criterion validityPREDICT
score each employee's likelihood of leaving to prioritize retention
' apply the fitted equation per row: y = const + b1*x1 + …Grounded in
Predictive HR Analytics with Excel, Sec 19.8 Logistic Regression: Predict Staff Resignation (also 12.4, 17.9)
Doing HR / People Analytics work?
The full HR / People Analytics guide covers this and the whole workflow around it — reconciled from the field’s best books.
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